The last time the U.S. Open was held at Bethpage Black golf course, in 2002, there was exactly one player who managed to shoot under par. It should surprise absolutely no one that the individual who accomplished that feat was Tiger Woods. He beat Phil Mickelson by three strokes to capture the championship, and in two weeks, he’ll try to acquire his fourth U.S. Open title, and second in a row.

Woods’ win last year at Torrey Pines might have been the most impressive of his career. If not, it was at least his most dramatic, considering his knee was about as stable as chewing gum while he battled upstart Rocco Mediate in an 18-hole playoff on Monday. Woods has returned to health this year, however, and has gone full bore, competing in six tournaments so far this season, with five top-10 finishes.

He’ll be the predominate favorite once again at Bethpage in a course that, due to its extreme length, favors big hitters. There are eight holes on the course which run at least 450 yards. But as is always the case with the U.S. Open, hitting the ball a long way does little good unless the players can manage to keep it on the fairways. The Open is infamous for its treacherous rough, which is traditionally so thick that each year, a number of golfers go into it looking for their ball, but never return.
Okay, that’s a slight exaggeration, but the point remains – the rough at the U.S. Open is hazardous to players’ scores. With that in mind, let’s examine a few statistics from this golf season (through tournaments ending May 31) to see who may or may not have a leg up on the competition.

Driving

As mentioned, hitting the ball with exceptional distance can be a boon for players, but control is also necessary. The easiest way to gauge those that excel in this area is by looking at total driving, which simply combines a player’s rank in both driving distance and fairway accuracy. For example, the leader in this statistic this season is Lucas Glover, who is 23rd in distance, and 46th in accuracy, for a score of 69. Granted, ranking 23rd and 46th do not seem overly impressive, but his total of 69 is 13 better than second-place Jonathan Byrd.

One player to watch in this regard is Robert Allenby. He is 22nd in driving distance and 74th in driving accuracy, giving him a total driving score of 96, which is seventh on the tour. However, of the 10 events he’s participated in this season, he has just one finish inside the top-10 – a fifth-place finish in the Honda Classic – but is otherwise devoid of quality scores. The reason? His putting, as he averages 1.817 putts per hole, a mark that places him 165th on the tour.

Kenny Perry is another interesting player to look at. A second-place finisher at the Masters in April, Perry has played excellent golf this year. He is eighth in total driving, helping him to a greens in regulation mark of 63.6 percent, which is 13th on tour.

If David Toms could hit the ball a bit further, he would be much higher on this list, as he displays remarkable control by hitting fairways 74.5 percent of the time, the second-highest number on tour. Alas, he’s only 101st in driving distance.

Scrambling

An underrated statistic in golf, scrambling is when you can manage to make par (or better) despite not making the green in regulation. This skill is vital in the U.S. Open because of the distressing nature of the rough.
Leading the list of scrambles at 73.33 percent is Ian Poulter, which is good news for him considering that he’s hitting just 64.3 percent of greens in regulation, a mark that ranks him 101st on tour. Yet he can clearly play out of the rough stuff, including the sand, where he’s second overall in sand saves. With four top-10 finishes in nine events so far this season, the 33-year-old Englishman is someone who may sneak up on people.

Someone who likely won’t sneak up on people despite his marginal play on the PGA Tour this season is Ernie Els, who places sixth in scrambling at 67.17. Despite two top-10 finishes on the year, he hasn’t placed better than 14th since the end of February, he missed the cut at the Masters, and in his last three PGA events, he’s placed 48th, 45th, and 52nd, respectively. Still, Els is far too talented not to be in the mix at the Open, though he’ll have to improve his putting, which has been poor all year. He’s 122nd on the tour, averaging 1.79 putts per hole.

After last season’s phenomenal play, a lot was expected out of Padraig Harrington this year, but he’s failed to deliver. Of the 10 tour events he’s played in 2009, he’s made only seven cuts and hasn’t finished higher than 11th. In fact, that 11th place finish is his only this season inside the top 20. He ranks 125th or worse in putts per hole, greens in regulation, driving distance, driving accuracy and total driving. Only in scrambling does he have a respectable number, as he ranks 15th among his peers.

The U.S. Open promises to be yet another grueling test for the players, and will make selecting a respectable fantasy squad quite a challenge. Choosing Tiger Woods is a given for most people, unless they really want to step out on a limb, so the difficulty lies in selecting that one player who can handle the conditions equal to or better than Woods. Hopefully we’ve given you a bit of a head start in this regard.